| Part IV - Hitters Versus Sliders | 06.26.09 at 8:52 am ET |
This is the fourth installment in a series that looks at which how well or poorly pitchers are throwing their different pitches this season and also how hitters are handling different pitches. Fangraphs is a terrific statistical resource that, among myriad other statistics that they provide, now tabulates results by pitch type (fastball, slider, cutter, curve, changeup, splitter, knuckleball).
Two of the stats shown below, sliders seen and sliders as a percentage of total pitches seen, are self-explanatory. However, the other result, runs above average per 100 sliders, can be a little more vague.
Look at it like this, each pitcher and hitter has a “slider ledger” with a plus side and a minus side. Any slider thrown that changes the count or that ends an at-bat will require an entry onto each ledger. If a slider is taken for a strike, a small positive entry (usually about +0.03 to +0.09 runs depending on the specific count) is added to the pitcher’s ledger and a corresponding negative entry is added for the batter. If it’s taken for a ball, the entries are reversed (negative for the pitcher and positive for the batter). If a slider is fouled off with two strikes, the count does not change, so that pitch is worth 0.00 to both sides. If the pitcher retires the batter with a slider, he gets a much more significant positive entry (about +0.4 runs, again with a corresponding negative entry for the batter) but if the batter walks or gets a hit on a slider, the pitcher gets a larger negative (about -0.5 runs for a single or walk and larger amounts for a double, triple, or home run) and the hitter gets a larger positive. Add up all of the positives and negatives for each player to get his net “runs” for that pitch and divide by the number of sliders thrown (or seen) to arrive at his net runs per 100 pitches and then per 100 pitches above average.
Remember, if a pitcher or hitter has a small negative RAA/100 pitches, that’s versus the average (so 0.00 is not bad)!
Now that all that is out of the way, here’s the info on hitters and sliders:
Part IV - SLIDERS (Hitters, AL, through June 22)
Most Sliders Seen, 2009:
245 - Alexei Ramirez, CHW
238 - Alex Rios, TOR
230 - Brandon Inge, DET
* - In 2008, Houston’s Hunter Pence saw 667 sliders, the most in the majors. Jason Bay saw 555 (combined PIT/BOS), while Cleveland’s Jhonny Peralta saw the most in the AL (520).
Highest % of Pitches Seen = Sliders, 2009 (Min. 700 Pitches Seen):
24.1% - Alexei Ramirez, CHW (has “created” -1.22 runs above average per 100 sliders seen)
21.4% - Paul Konerko, CHW (-0.50 RAA/100 sliders)
21.2% - Ben Francisco, CLE (-1.66 RAA/100 sliders)
* - Jason Bay still gets a lot of sliders, having seen 188 (15.1% of total pitches). Both marks lead the Sox hitters, but Bay has crushed sliders this season (+2.13 RAA/100 sliders) after posting just a +0.21 last season.
* - Last season, Alexei Ramirez (24.4%) again saw the highest percentage of sliders in the AL (min. 1,500 pitches seen), followed by Cleveland’s Kelly Shoppach (22.7%) and Minny’s Carlos Gomez (22.6%). All three were below average in expected runs “created” per 100 sliders.
Lowest % of Pitches Seen = Sliders, 2009 (Min. 700 Pitches Seen):
6.4% - Nick Punto, MIN (-1.95 RAA/100 sliders)
7.3% - Kendry Morales, LAA (-1.13 RAA/100 sliders)
7.4% - Chone Figgins, LAA (+0.20 RAA/100 sliders)
Perhaps it’s time for opponents to consider throwing Punto and Morales the slider more often?
Best Slider Results in 2009 (min. 100 sliders seen):
+4.21 - Carlos Gomez, MIN (+4.21 runs above average per 100 sliders seen)
+3.87 - Jim Thome, CHW
+3.75 - Justin Morneau, MIN
* - Gomez seems to have figured out how to handle the slider since last season and opponents are beginning to notice: He’s seeing just 17% sliders in ‘09 versus 22% last season.
* - The 2008 major league leaders in RAA per 100 sliders seen (min. 200 sliders) were Matt Holliday (+3.14), Manny Ramirez (+3.04), Alex Rodriguez (+2.88), Robinson Cano (+2.78), and Raul Ibanez (+2.52). That’s a pretty significant group of hitters!
Worst Slider Results in 2009 (min. 100 sliders seen):
-5.72 - Delmon Young, MIN
-4.90 - Yuniesky Betancourt, SEA
-2.77 - David DeJesus, KC
Red Sox 2009 Slider Results (with their 2008 runs above average per 100 sliders results):
-2.09 - Kevin Youkilis (+0.01 in 2008)
+2.13 - Jason Bay (+0.21)
+0.48 - JD Drew (+0.77)
+1.81** - Jason Varitek (+0.07)
+1.26** - Julio Lugo (-0.31)
+1.46 - Dustin Pedroia (+1.82)
+4.53** - Rocco Baldelli
+2.08 - Jacoby Ellsbury (+0.66)
-1.94** - Nick Green
-0.82 - Mike Lowell (+0.15)
-3.24** - George Kottaras
-0.94 - David Ortiz (-0.17)
NOTE: ** = Fewer than 100 sliders seen
* - MISCELLANEOUS NOTES: Since becoming a regular in ‘06 through the end of ‘08, Youkilis has been consistently slightly above average versus the slider (+0.14 RAA/100 sliders). In 2009, though, he’s had a tough time (-2.09 per 100 sliders). Opposing pitchers are throwing him sliders 15.6% of the time, less often than last year’s 17.7% and more in line with 2006 and 2007… The Red Sox are one of only eight MLB teams with an above average RAA/100 sliders (+0.05) this season. Tampa Bay (+0.56) leads the majors against sliders. Over the last 30 days, the Yankees have been the AL’s worst hitting team against sliders (-2.04).
One Last Thing: Here’s an examination of last week’s sliders to Dustin Pedroia (+8.72 RAA/100 sliders last week):
Sliders turned into hits: 1 (a double)
Sliders turned into outs: 0
Slider strikes that improved the count for the pitcher: 5
Sliders taken for balls: 8
In summary, Pedroia got one big positive (the double) and no big negatives (outs), then added in 8 small positives (balls) and 5 small negatives (strikes). Pedroia’s net was a +1.0 RAA and +8.72 RAA/100 (there is some rounding involved).
Enjoy the weekend and stay tuned for the fifth installment in the series: Pitchers and Cutters.

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