Let’s see if we can get some insight into what we can expect out of Roy Halladay over the next four seasons:

Roy Halladay just completed his age 32 season and has thrown 2,046 innings. He is one of 95 pitchers since 1952 to throw 2,000 or more innings by the time they are 32. Six of those (including Halladay) turned 32 in the last three seasons, leaving 89 pitchers where we can examine their performance over the next four years (from 33 through 36).

* - Those 89 pitchers averaged 7.0 seasons of 200+ innings through age 32:
- 53 of them never had another season of 200+ innings;
- 9 threw 200+ innings once in the next four years;
- 11 did it twice;
- 10 did it three times;
- 6 did it all four seasons;

So only 27 of the 89 (30%) had more than one season of 200+ innings in the four years from age 32 through 36.

* - Out of those 89 pitchers, 40 pitched 400 or more total innings over the following four seasons:

- 27 of those 40 (67%) had a worse ERA+ from age 33 through 36 than from age 32 and before. (ERA+ is an index that compares ERA to the league average)
- 31 of those 40 (78%) saw their WHIP (walks+hits per inning) deteriorate.
- 33 of those 40 (83%) had a lower complete game rate (CG as a percentage of games started).
- 37 of those 40 (93%) had a lower shutout rate (SHO as a percentage of games started).

Halladay is one of 18 pitchers since ‘52 that not only pitched 2,000 innings through age 32, but also had a career WHIP of 1.250 or lower and an ERA+ of 120 or higher (ERA’s at least 20% better than league averages) at that point. Here are the other 16 and how they did over their age 33 through 36 seasons, sorted by total innings pitched during that span (John Smoltz is omitted because he became a reliever):

Bob Gibson - 1,132 IP - WHIP improved 1% - ERA+ improved 5% - CG rate went from 50% to 70%
Bert Blyleven - 1,077 IP - WHIP 2% worse - ERA+ 2% worse - CG rate went from 38% to 42%
Roger Clemens - 929 IP - WHIP 6% worse - ERA+ improved 4% - CG rate went from 27% to 16%
Greg Maddux - 901 IP - WHIP 5% worse - ERA+ 1% worse - CG rate went from 22% to 10%
Tom Seaver - 809 IP - WHIP 10% worse - ERA+ 15% worse - CG rate went from 47% to 24%
Mike Mussina - 775 IP - WHIP 6% worse - ERA+ 18% worse - CG rate went from 15% to 6%
Jim Palmer - 734 IP - WHIP 9% worse - ERA+ 16% worse - CG rate went from 47% to 22%
Juan Marichal - 709 IP - WHIP 14% worse - ERA+ 22% worse - CG rate went from 60% to 32%
Wilbur Wood - 638 IP - WHIP 22% worse - ERA+ 29% worse - CG rate went from 43% to 29%
Pedro Martinez - 487 IP - WHIP 13% worse - ERA+ 36% worse - CG rate went from 13% to 5%
Steve Rogers - 480 IP - WHIP 13% worse - ERA+ 23% worse - CG rate went from 35% to 21%
Bret Saberhagen - 320 IP - WHIP 6% worse - ERA+ improved 1% - CG rate went from 25% to 0%
Dave Steib - 178 IP - WHIP 17% worse - ERA+ 27% worse - CG rate went from 26% to 7%
Andy Messersmith - 62 IP - WHIP 26% worse - ERA+ 39% worse - CG rate went from 34% to 9%
Sandy Koufax - Did not pitch after 32.
Don Drysdale - Did not pitch after 32.

Granted, every pitcher is different and Roy Halladay appears to have the optimum pitcher’s body for handling the strain of pitching into his mid-to-late thirties, but history doesn’t lie. To expect more than two seasons of 200+ innings out of the next four looks like it would be “whistling past the graveyard”. It’s reasonable to expect that Halladay’s WHIP would deteriorate by about 10% (from 1.198 to about 1.318?) and his ERA+ would get about 15% worse (from 133 to about 113?). Finally, expect his complete game rate to drop by about half (from 17% to about 8%?).

None of this is set in stone (see Gibson, Bob), but the exceptions are pretty far between. Halladay is a great, great pitcher. But even the great ones decline after 32, and it can be a steep slope if they’ve endured a heavy workload early in their career. It would be awfully shortsighted to ignore history in a case such as this.

7 Comments for “Halladay versus History?”

1. Eric Says:
   November 27th, 2009 at 9:39 pm

   I would like to say this is very impressive that you found all these numbers. That is a lot of homework you pulled out and that is admirable. A+

2. Eric Says:
   November 27th, 2009 at 9:42 pm

   And with saying that, I think the Red Sox should not go for Roy Halladay. I know how spectacular he has been but history does not lie. Throw a package for Adrian Gonzalez. I do not want to see Miguel Cabrera here. The only pitcher we should be trading for is Felix Hernandez if theres going to be a chance. And people need to get over the idea of the Sox getting Joe Mauer because he isn’t leaving Minnesota so that’s not even an idea anymore for next year. Make it happen Theo!

3. Pathan Says:
   November 27th, 2009 at 11:54 pm

   So what? If he came to the Red Sox, do you think we would have to pitch 200+ innings to be effective and provide the best rotation in baseball. In this day of an age, you and lose in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings of the game. Set-up man and closer are key to winning the game. Why do you think pitcher are admired for going seven plus inning now. Because now you go to your set-up man and closer to finish the job. These stats are useless because these guys pitched in different eras. Get Holliday, or if you want to save the trading chips for someone else, then I say make that someone else Det. 1st baseman.

4. Jay Says:
   November 28th, 2009 at 11:07 am

   The parameters you used are pretty arbitrary - to the extent that its weakening your argument.

   For example your cutoff threshold for ERA+ is 120, whereas Halladay is a career 133 ERA+ pitcher. An ERA+ of 133 and 120 are two completely different things. Last year Justin Verlander had a 133 ERA+ and Jered Weaver was at 120. If we set the parameters to ERA+ of 130 and keep everything else the same your list of comparable pitchers shrinks down to:

   Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Mike Mussina, and Juan Marichal.

   In trying to replicate your math that would mean you would expect a 8.25% deterioration in WHIP (1.281) and an 11% deterioration in ERA+ (118).

   —

   Furthermore it might be foolish to ignore body types. Pedro 5′11″ 170 pounds, Mussina 6′2″ 185 vs a guy like Halladay 6′6″ and 225.

   Overall - I think its safe to say that Halladay’s performance probably wont get better over the next 4 years, but to put Dave Steib and Bret Saberhagen in the same category as Roy Halladay is for lack of a better term - just wrong, and to assume that Halladay will follow the same career path as those two (and some of the others on the list) is also just wrong.

5. wayconfused Says:
   November 29th, 2009 at 11:03 am

   Gary from chapel hill, get out of the darkroom and come into the light, unless your in an accident ,then run from the light. Personally I would not mind if the Sox wheel Josh B. out of town in a deal for a hitter. We could not hit in the playoffs. I don’t think Halliday is a very good hitter is he. A team needs balance, we have no feared hitters except Youk and he is only feared for wearing out pitchers with his mega pitch at-bats. The Sox need a clutch power hitter so everyone can move down a spot in the order. IMHO anyway

6. Chris henderson Says:
   November 30th, 2009 at 12:37 pm

   Well it’s a big risk to get Halladay would have to give them alot for it we can us them on someone else.What about John Lackey u won’t have to get rid of any of ur young prospects he can be ur 3rd in the rotation and u get to give Clay for another year and see is Beckett is even worth re signing him..

7. rob Says:
   December 3rd, 2009 at 2:35 pm

   Get Halladay, while the rest of the league is fooled by Peter Gammons into thinking Casey Kelly is the next whatever, and that Clay Bucholz doesn’t wilt like a month old cut flower when the heat is on.

   Seriously, name a Sox prospect that’s been traded anywhere that’s amount to squat? Can you even remember who we shipped off to PIT for Bay? We’re really lucky we have Gammons around to hype up guys that aren’t that good.

   If the Yankees get Halladay (barring injuries to him or CC), the Sox will not sniff the W.S. for at least the next four years. Even if Clay and Kelly do deliver, as advertised, let it be in Toronto so they can beat up the Yankees and Rays and keep the division tough for everyone.

   Further, if the Sox do trade away depth like Kelly, you know they’ll just go way over slot to find the next big thing in the amateur draft.

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